The 2026 Oscars: Why I Think “The Message Movies” Will Be the Winners... and Who I Think Really Deserves to Win

March 2026

 

My number one prediction this year ...

 

Is that the Oscar winners....

Won’t be able to resist...

 

Virtue signaling like crazy...

​

Even though when it comes to their opinion about politics...

​

NO ONE CARES...

​

But they think we do....or should...

​

And since two of the films up for the most awards:

One Battle After Another and Sinners...

​

Lend themselves to the kind of political pontificating...

The entertainment industry cannot resist...

​

I’ll probably spend the evening getting ready to fill out my Big Dance brackets...

Or re-watching that marvelous take down of the Hollywood elite by Ricky Gervais...

​

But since I can never resist giving an opinion... on anything...

​

I’m going to weigh in on who I think deserves to win...

​

Even though I think we all know who will be the big winners this year...

Because the Academy just loves...

​

Films with THE MESSAGE...

​

To quote a familiar phrase from the Critical Drinker...

​

So it will likely be a battle between ...

​

A movie with Jack Booted ICE Agents ...

And a Couple of Black Dudes Killing White Vampires...

​

Both of which, IMO, were overrated...

​

But let’s start with which film I believe should win Best Picture...

​

Because if this award is supposed to be the best all-around film...

Then there can be only one choice... F1

​

Because this movie has it all...

​

Excellent pacing...

Top flight talent...

And interesting enough story to make a racing movie appeal to this grandmother...

Exceptional cinematography that not only took you directly onto the race track... But around the world...

And a great soundtrack by Hans Zimmer...

​

Now F1 probably won’t win because it’s a popcorn movie...

​

And it doesn’t have THE MESSAGE...

​

So I’m also picking a runner up...Hamnet..

​

So although this film started slow...

It left us sitting in our seats and unable to move ...

As we tried to compose ourselves as the credits rolled...

​

But my prediction is that Oscar will go to one of the films that have a racist white man as the villain...

Sinners or One Battle After Another...

​

Now none of the nominees for Best Director deserve to win...

​

Hamnet ... Chloe Zhao’s movie takes too long to get going......

Marty Supreme was basically Ratzo Rizzo plays ping pong.... and too obviously a Timothée Chalamet vanity project...

One Battle After Another got close to being clever, but then was dragged down by THE MESSAGE...

Sentimental Value was Norwegian Ambien...

And Sinners is just another White People Are All Bad Movie that is about as subtle as a brick thrown through window...

​

And guess who didn’t get a nomination...

​

The one man who deserved it... Joseph Kosinski

For making a film, F1, that was the total package...

​

Although if we are going to be honest, Jerry Bruckheimer’s fingerprints were all over that movie..

​

So I’m skipping this one...

​

But I suspect the Academy will struggle with whether to give this award to their favorite auteur... Paul Thomas Anderson...

​

Or the hot new Black director, Ryan Coogler...

​

Who does deserve an award for cutting that deal with Warner Brothers...

That gives him first dollar box office cuts and rights to the film for 25 years...

​

Now that was impressive...

​

The Best Actor is easy.... it should be Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon...

​

No one else comes close to his performance...

​

But it will either be DiCaprio or Michael Jordan...

And to be honest, both were good in their films...

​

But Hawke is soo much better ...

​

Best Actress....

​

Another easy one... Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

​

That scene of her watching her husband’s play will break your heart...

​

And I think she will win... because the competition isn’t very stiff in this category

​

Best Supporting Actor...

 

My pick...Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein...

 

Because it isn’t easy giving a memorable performance when you are covered in makeup...

That took hours to apply...

But Elordi manages to do so...

 

And makes us fall a little in love with the monster... even at the end

​

But it is going to go to Benicio Del Toro...

Because he plays a noble fellow thwarting ICE...

​

And this year the Academy will not be able to resist that...

​

Best Supporting Actress...

​

Now the CW is the winner will be Teyana Taylor...

For playing a caricature of a revolutionary...

​

Because the Academy loves loves loves a bad ass woman fighting for the right cause....

​

But of all the nominees in this category ...

​

I most enjoyed watching Wunmi Mosaku....

​

So we’ll see which of these two Black women wins...

​

Best Screenplay... this is no contest...

​

Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon...

​

Which is a tour de force from an unknown New Jersey high school English teacher..

​

But I did wonder where was the nomination the Day-Lewis boys for Anemone?...

​

However, I suspect it will go to the Sentimental Value because the Academy may want this film to win something...

​

Unless they decide they want Sinners to sweep the night...

​

Best Adapted Screenplay.... Frankenstein

​

This film captures the pathos embedded in Mary Shelley’s story ...

While at the same time making it resonate for our moment...

​

But I think the Academy will struggle with this one...

​

Should we give it to a woman for Hamnet?

Or a very timely update for One Battle After Another...

Of a book from the 80s that hated on Republicans...

​

Or they may decide to give it to Train Dreams...because someone obviously loved that book...

Because there is no other explanation for why this movie was on anyone’s radar screen... 

​

Best Cinematography and Best Production Design...

​

This one should be no contest... Frankenstein...

​

Guillermo del Toro was born to make this movie...

​

Because this story plays into all his strengths as a director...

​

However, Train Dreams is not undeserving of its nomination for Best Cinematography...

Which was the only thing worthwhile about this long slog of a film...

​

But it isn’t even in the same category with what is going on visually in Frankenstein...

​

But again... this category is ripe for a sweep by Sinners or One Battle After Another...

​

So while I think one of these two films will walk away with the most awards..

​

Because they have THE MESSAGE...

​

If you add up my picks...

​

Frankenstein should be the winner...

​

With Blue Moon coming in a strong second...

​

But, frankly, no one should care what I think...

Since I crashed and burned with my predictions last year...

​

Because I had forgotten how much the Academy...

 

Loves movies about hookers...

 

​​

 

​

​

​

​

 

                                                      

 

​

 

​​

​​

​​

​

​

 

​

 

​

 

​

 

​

​

​

​

 

​

 

​

​

 

​

 

​

​

 

​

​​

 

​

​

​

​

​

 

​

​

​

​

​

​​

​

​

 

​

​

​

 

​

 

​

​

 

​

 

​

​​

​

 

​

 

​

 

​

 

​​

 

​

​

​

 

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

​​

 

​

 

​

​

​

 

​

 

 

 

 

​

 

​

 

​

​

​

 

​

​

​

​

​

​​